Prognostic value of treadmill exercise testing: a population-based study in Olmsted County, Minnesota.

BACKGROUND The prognostic value of treadmill exercise testing (TMET) has been studied in selected populations. The generalizability of these data to different populations and to women is uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS A retrospective, population-based cohort study of all persons (1452 men and 741 women) who underwent TMET in years 1987 to 1989 in Olmsted County, Minnesota, was undertaken. Individuals were followed up for all-cause mortality and cardiac events (cardiac deaths, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or congestive heart failure). Sex-specific analyses were performed to determine whether the predictors of outcome and the magnitude of the associations were similar in both sexes. In men, 77 deaths and 106 cardiac events occurred during 8956 person-years of observation; in women, 46 deaths and 54 cardiac events occurred during 4801 person-years of follow-up. Exercise-induced angina, ECG changes, and workload achieved on the TMET were strongly associated with all-cause mortality and cardiac events in both sexes, and the strength of the association was similar. After adjustment, workload was the only TMET variable associated with outcome. A higher workload was associated with a reduction in the risk of cardiac events and of all-cause mortality; the protective effect of exercise capacity was strong and was similar in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS In this population-based cohort, exercise capacity was the TMET variable that exhibited the strongest association with all-cause mortality and cardiac events. This protective effect of exercise capacity was observed in both sexes.